Netherlands in Numbers
G8

Housing shortage estimate (woningtekort)

model
4.6% of stock↗change: 1y -0.2 pts · 5y +1.1 pts · 10y —as of 2026C source confidence
Housing shortage (model) — Netherlands

Known criticisms of this statistic

Every statistic embodies method choices, and the substantive critiques of those choices are part of understanding the number. These are documented positions — each linked to who makes it. Listing a criticism is not endorsing it; we take no side.

  • The calculated shortage is highly sensitive to its assumptions — from what age people are assumed to want their own home, to what share of vacant dwellings counts as available — and for many of those assumptions factual data are lacking. Presenting it as one absolute number gives it more certainty than it has.

    — Algemene Rekenkamer (Netherlands Court of Audit), 2022 · Aanpak woningtekort

  • The model's own builders showed that moving the 25-year age threshold for counting housing-sharers by a single year shifts the national shortage by 20,000–28,000 dwellings, and that latent demand — young adults still living with their parents who would move if housing existed — is not counted at all.

    — ABF Research (the model's builders), evaluation for the ministry, 2024 · Evaluatie woningtekort

  • The shortage is derived from how households currently live — but how they live is itself shaped by scarcity, and because the model contains no prices it cannot say how much building would restore affordability.

    — Stefan Groot (economist), in ESB, 2022 · ESB: Gemeten woningtekort zegt weinig over werkelijke woningschaarste

Source & method

SourceABF manual:G8
Human pagehttps://abfresearch.nl
LicenceABF Primos publication
Trend methodOLS over last 8 annual observations, 5% significance (MBW convention)
RevisionsNone recorded since 2026-07-07. Every retrieval is stored append-only; when the source restates history, the old and new values become comparable here.

Raw snapshot (JSON) · every observation keeps its retrieval timestamp and revision history in the public database.

Data table — Housing shortage (model) (Netherlands)
PeriodValue
20264.6
20254.8
20244.9
20234.8
20223.9
20213.5
20204.2
20193.8
20183.4